We can't really answer you that unless you gave us so more details re: traffic of your site. Why are you switching hosts? Is it because another host said your using too much server resources? If so, you'll most probably need a VPS.
VPSes in general allow you more server resources, as an "isolated" resource. Your guaranteed certain things like RAM and a VPS is really flexible. It's your OWN 'mini' server.
The traffic is relatively low. Really, is a new project, approximately for 200 or 400 students and 50 or 60 courses. I'm not sure of the exact traffic, but in some cases need video downloads and documents attachment.
My question is about performance and resource consumption of moodle (nesesary memory, cpu, database connection, etc).